↑ Jul '23 | 6.62 1/2 |-8 1/2
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↓ Dec '23 | 6.17 3/4 |-11
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↓ Jul '23 |14.90 1/4|-24 1/2
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↓ Nov'23 |13.45 3/4|-31 1/4
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↓ Jul '24 | 7.64 1/4 |-10 1/4
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Night Trade as of 7:00 am CST. |
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Sell Signals • Corn - Extended Day 14 • Soybeans - Extended Day 10
• Chicago Wheat - Day 6 • Kansas City Wheat – Day 1
• Minneapolis Wheat – Day 3 • Meal – Day 1
Buy Signals • None |
During the past 12 months: • Corn had 8 Sell Signals lasting 3, 3, 15, 6, 1, 4, 7, and 2 days.
• Soybeans had 9 Sell Signals lasting 1, 2, 1, 7, 6, 2, 1, and 8 days. • Chicago wheat had 4 Sell Signals lasting 6, 2, 5, and 7 days. • KC wheat had 6 Sell Signals lasting 9, 4, 1, 13, 7, and 7 days.
• Minneapolis wheat had 6 Sell Signals lasting 3, 3, 3, 12, 4, and 5 days. • Meal had 8 Sell Signals lasting 1, 2, 1, 3, 11, 7, 8, and 1 days. |
Keep dribbling out corn sales
Corn saw another sharp rally on Wednesday following larger than expected declines in US crop ratings. After failing to close above $6 on Tuesday, December corn shot to a $6.28 close yesterday and reached its highest price level since last fall. Overnight, prices eased back to the middle of Wednesday’s range.
The weather models still look dry across most of the central Corn Belt for the next week, but rain has shifted a little further south in the latest forecasts. It now looks like the northern half or two-thirds of Iowa could receive rain this weekend. However, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana all still look mostly dry over the next week.
Corn is an Extended Sell Signal. Typically, we would pause sales once Sell Signals become extended (10+ days), but on this round of Sell Signals we are recommending that you keep dribbling in sales each day this week while prices remain higher. If this rally continues through Friday, that will bring our new crop sales recommendation from 25% to 30% of your expected 2023 production. If you are still holding onto old crop corn, keep dribbling out those sales too.
Keep dribbling out soybean sales
Meal now in a Sell Signal
November beans also surged to a new high yesterday before easing back slightly overnight. The soybean Sell Signal has just entered Extended range now that it reached Day 10. We recommend that you keep dribbling in small sales of soybeans each day this week that prices remain at this higher level. If the markets continue to rally through Friday and you keep making sales each day this week, that will bring our new crop sales recommendation from 35% of expected production to 40%. Traders were disappointed by the EPA biodiesel blending targets that were announced yesterday to cover 2023-2025. This led to soybean oil prices falling limit down yesterday. Soybean oil prices fell further overnight and have expanded trading limits today (along with the rest of the soybean complex).
Meal prices also saw a huge surge yesterday and have now triggered a Sell Signal. We don’t provide recommendations on meal selling, just buying. Fortunately, livestock producers had a long Buy Signal through May and early June ahead of this rally. KC wheat finally triggered a Sell Signal
Wheat prices also saw large price surges yesterday and small pullbacks overnight. Kansas City wheat officially joined this round of Sell Signals overnight, putting all our followed crop markets into Sell Signals.
The multi-month decline in wheat prices has made it difficult to market winter wheat ahead of the current harvest. During the mid-May KC wheat Sell Signal, we had bumped our 2023 new crop sales recommendation up to 20% of expected production.
Now that winter wheat prices have moved significantly above their lows it is time to ramp up sales of the crop currently being harvested because we aren’t recommending that producers store wheat. |
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Use this Sell Signal to bring your winter wheat sales for your 2023 crop up to 20% sold if you haven’t already, and if you are already at that level, keep dribbling out additional sales on each day of the rally during the Sell Signal.
We also feel the green light is on to begin making some small initial sales of your expected 2024 winter wheat production if those sales lock in profits for your operation.
For Minneapolis wheat, we have recommended selling up to 15% of your expected 2023 production. If you’re already at this level, keep dribbling in sales during the Sell Signal.
Russian officials continue to signal that they intend to pull out of the Black Sea shipping agreement when it expires next month. |
Outside markets and headlines
US equity markets declined for the third day in a row yesterday as traders continue to digest the likelihood that the Fed resumed raising interest rates at their next meeting.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in the US on Tuesday and will be the guest of honor for a fancy State dinner hosted by President Biden tonight. Given our icy relationship with China, our relationship with India is strengthening. Many US companies are diversifying manufacturing base outside of China, and India is one of their key alternatives.
Apple has already shifted some iPhone production to India and opened their first Apple store in the country this spring. Over 50 Fortune 500 CEO’s have an Indian origin (e.g. Google). |
Regional Basis Summary
Click here for the Regional Basis Summary.
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Jobless claims
US jobless claims were 264,000 for the week ending June 17, which was unchanged from the previous week's revised total, according to the US Department of Labor. The 4-week moving average was 255,750, an increase of 8,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 13, 2021, when it was 260,000. |
Source: US Department of Labor, tradingeconomics |
Low river levels now threaten the Mississippi
Water levels on the upper Mississippi River have swung widely over the past month. They have gone from widespread flooding due to snowmelt and early spring rain to low levels that are beginning to threaten barge traffic due to the lack of rain.
Below are the water level measurements for St. Paul, MN, Rock Island, IL, and St. Louis, MO. |
Recent USDA Daily Flash Sales – Corn and Soybeans |
From this morning's USDA daily exports sales notice • None |
Livestock 3-Points Newsletter
We now offer a daily newsletter and Sell Signals for livestock markets. Click here to receive the Livestock 3-Points free for 30-days. |
U.S. – Wednesday's observed precipitation |
Source: NOAA
Rain and thunderstorms are forecast again today across Plains, with severe storms possible. Rain and thunderstorms are also expected again today across much of the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts today. Essentially, the rain is sweeping in a big circle around the heart of the Corn Belt. The Upper Midwest begins to look wet on the current forecast for Saturday.
From the National Weather Service: Widespread record to near-record daytime heat with temperatures into the 100s will continue across portions of the south-central US this week, particularly in Texas. Heat indices may soar as high as 120 degrees in some places. |
GFS Model - U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast |
European Model - U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast |
US 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal |
U.S. 6-10 day temperature outlook |
U.S. 6-10 day precipitation outlook |
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA, NOAA |
Brazil 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal |
Argentina 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal |
We encourage your questions, comments, and suggestions. Simply reply to this email. |
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ABOUT US
Roach Ag. Marketing is a full service advisory firm founded in Perry, Iowa back in 1978 to help farmers do a better job of marketing their crops and livestock. Learn more...
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Roach Ag Marketing
568 E Yamato Rd
Ste 200
Boca Raton, FL 33431
Telephone: 800.622.7628
FAX: 561-994-9240
E-mail: dailygrainplan@roachag.com |
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