↑ Dec'24 | 4.05 1/4 | +1/2
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↑ Mar'25 | 4.19 1/4 | +1/2
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↑ Nov'24 | 9.73 1/2 | +3 1/2
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↑ Jan'25 | 9.85 1/2 | +2 3/4
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Night Trade as of 7:00 am CST. |
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- Corn - Day 4
- Soybeans - Day 7
- Chicargo Wheat - Day 1
- Meal - Day 8
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During the past 12 months - Corn had 7 Buy Signals lasting 13, 2, 16, 13, 4, 20, and 11 days.
- Soybeans had 6 Buy Signals lasting 18, 9, 38, 12, 31, and 17 days.
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Chicago Wheat had 8 Buy Signals lasting 2, 8, 3, 3, 7, 2, 29, and 4 days.
- Meal had 6 Buy Signals lasting 13, 33, 14, 1, 28, and 8 days.
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Buy Signals continue Chicago Wheat added overnight
Since peaking at the beginning of the month, prices across the crop markets have cycled lower and triggered a round of Buy Signals in our system. Overnight, Chicago wheat joined corn, beans, and meal in a new Buy Signal. Livestock producers should be making aggressive purchases on this round of Buy Signals. If the market can build on today’s upward momentum this week, the Buy Signals will begin to fade over the next few days.
Spec funds have been the difference
Not much unexpected has occurred in the past three weeks to drive prices from their recent highs to their recent lows. The fundamentals this month were largely unchanged, the US harvest has progressed as expected, and the rain promised in the long-range forecasts is now being realized in Brazil. This news has all been priced into the markets.
The largest change of the past three weeks came from the spec funds, as they first continued to unwind their record net short positions of this past summer, and then last week rebuilt some of those short positions as the price trends pivoted lower. (Last week, the funds’ net positions changed by more than -60k contracts in corn, -18k contracts in soybeans, and -40k contracts in meal). We have seen a large round of flash sales taking advantage of the cheaper price levels, primarily in corn. Last week’s export sales totals for corn reached its highest sales volume since April 2023. NOTE: This morning's flash sales included another 498k tons of corn sales, along with 380k tons of soybean sales. The world finds these price levels attractive.
Prices are attempting to rebound as we start the new week. This pivot back higher off last week’s lows should slow the renewed spec fund selling. This is a good buying opportunity. Livestock producers should cover feed needs for the next 30-60 days. Corn and soybean producers could use these Buy Signals as an opportunity to take reownership of bushels sold at harvest. Give us a call if you’d like to discuss this strategy with a Roach Ag Broker.
Other – Energy Buy Signals Natural gas prices have fallen lower nearly every day this month due to the impacts of hurricane activity and reports of larger than expected US supplies. Natural gas is in a strong Buy Signal. Crude and heating oil both fell into downtrends last week. Heating oil moved just low enough to trigger a Buy Signal today. Crude oil could join tomorrow. These energy market declines present a buying opportunity to cover your fuel needs. Check your local prices. |
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Cotton, rice, and sugar are all trading a modest distance below their respective 20-day averages this morning. All three are flirting with Buy Signals, just a hair above the threshold needed to officially trigger a Buy Signal in our system. Today’s price movement will determine whether they are in or out of a Buy Signal tomorrow. |
Outside Markets
Equities: Wall Street ended another banner week on Friday after earnings reports remained positive overall. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 again closed at record highs while Nasdaq climbed more than 110 points higher.
Netflix was in the spotlight after its earnings and revenue projections beat expectations. Proctor & Gamble was also higher, and Tyra Biosciences benefited from an upgrade by Bank of America as it prepares to announce clinical data on its latest cancer drug at a major conference later this week. CNBC said 75% of last week’s earnings reports exceeded analysts’ predictions. Thursday’s relatively upbeat reports on jobless claims and retail sales were offset on Friday by a decline in building permits and housing starts in September.
Dollar: The dollar eased slightly on Friday, reportedly with investors distracted by an upswing in China’s equity markets. The Dollar Index was down slightly at 103.3 as investors saw better opportunities in the stock market. On the other hand, the euro remained sluggish despite a slight increase to 1.086 on Friday. Sagging inflation in Europe is seen as an indication of an economic slowdown.
The dollar was also lower against the yen on Friday, backing away from the 150.0 mark and heading into the weekend around 149.4. Reuters said Friday the currency market is increasingly banking on Trump being elected and instituting tax and tariff policies likely to keep U.S. interest rates elevated.
Treasuries: Treasury yields declined on Friday with less than a month to go before the next Federal Reserve policy meeting. The 10-year yield was slightly lower at 4.07% after failing to reach 4.10% on Thursday but remained at their highest levels in about two months. The 2-year yield eased to 3.96%. Housing starts and building permits both fell in September. Private-owned authorizations for permits totaled 1.428 million, 2.9% below the previous month’s total. Starts decreased 0.5% to 1.354 million.
Energies: Continued sluggish demand in China outweighed the Middle East on Friday as crude futures slid more than a dollar lower. This month’s rally appeared to come to an end as December WTI fell $1.38 to $68.71, about where prices were on Oct. 1 and below the $71 moving average. The rest of the energy menu also sagged on Friday, including November natural gas prices which hit a 12-month low of $2.25.
The death of the leader of Hamas in Gaza didn’t lead to any changes in the status quo, although analysts speculated it could lead to increased chances of a ceasefire. China released data last week showing modest economic growth and lower refinery output for a sixth consecutive month.
Metals: Gold futures remained above the $2,700 mark on Friday with traders feasting on uncertainty over the U.S. presidential election and continuing tension in the Middle East. December futures surged to $2,730, an all-time high, by Friday afternoon. December silver spiked to a 3-month high of $33.34 and then backtracked slightly. Unlike the oil market, gold traders were apparently unconvinced last week’s death of the leader of Hamas would clear the way for a peace deal.
December copper tested $4.40 and was still around $4.30 late in the day. There was some positive economic news from China last week, including an increase in retail sales and industrial output. Analysts, however, said the impact of the latest economic stimulus package on metals remained minimal as it was aimed at reducing the current stock of existing homes rather than inspiring new construction.
Livestock: Cattle futures closed out the week more than a dollar higher on Friday while hog prices stuck around the week’s highs. December live cattle moved higher early in the day but ran out of gas above $187. The early gains were considered likely bargain hunting after skidding lower during the week. November feeder cattle managed a modest breakout from the week’s range by gaining $1.85 and finishing firmly above $247. The hog market held onto its midweek gains despite being only slightly higher and within earshot of $78.
The USDA Friday raised its beef production outlook for the remainder of the year. The department late last Friday increased its projections for the third and fourth quarters and raised the forecast for the year to 27 billion pounds, slightly higher than 2023. The increases were based on a higher-than-expected slaughter rate and fed cattle marketings. Pork production for 2024 was projected at nearly 28 billion pounds, a 2.4% increase over 2023. Pork production in 2025 was projected at 28.5 billion pounds while estimated beef production for the year was raised to nearly 26 billion pounds.
Last week’s beef production totaled 523.5 million pounds, a 3.9% increase over the week ending Oct. 12. Pork output was also higher at 555.7 million pounds, up 1.3% from the week before. For the year, beef production is less than 1% lower than 2023 while pork is running 1.6% above last year. Average cattle weights last week were 2 pounds higher than the week before at 1,414 pounds and above 1,379 pounds a year ago. Hog weights last were 286 pounds, a pound heavier than the previous week and even with this time last year.
Live Cattle: Cash trade was light on Friday after a busier Thursday with a few deals reportedly getting done at $188. The slaughter last week was pegged at 608,000 compared to 586,000 the week before. Reuters reported last week that imports of Australian beef have jumped this year, reaching nearly 40,000 tons in August and the highest volume since 2015. Australia now accounts for 22% of U.S. beef imports.
Feeder Cattle: The CME Index was approaching $251 late last week. Auction activity in Oklahoma last week saw good demand that bumped steer prices a few dollars and steer calves as much as $8 higher. About half of the steers on the block were over 600 pounds. Lean Hogs: Last week’s slaughter totaled 2,613,000, up from 2,584,000 the previous week and about even with the 2,615,899 a year ago. Cutout prices remained solid and pushed $98 on Friday. Ham primals rose above $87 and bellies were up nearly $6. The CME Index slipped below $85 at midweek but appeared to be holding steady.
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Looking at the far-right column in the table below you can see that spec fund’s Total positions pivoted back to being net short, following a single week in the net positive. The funds added a substantial number of short hedges to the corn and oilseed markets last week, as prices sank down into Buy Signal range. Overall, despite the change in magnitude of their holdings, the trends remain the same. Spec funds are still short in all markets except soybean oil and meal.
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Commercial traders also reversed their recent patterns by removing 111k Total contracts of short hedges last week. However, like the spec funds, the overall pattern of holdings did not change. Large commercial traders continued to hold net short positions in all markets except spring wheat. |
Weekly Export Sales
Export sales for corn and soybeans increased last week as international buyers secured sizable chunks of the rapidly advancing harvest.
The increases during the week ending Oct. 10 were largely expected by analysts, even with corn sales nearly double the week before and Upland cotton up 78%.
This week featured a blockbuster corn deal with Mexico totaling more than 1.6 million metric tons (MT). The USDA said Wednesday that 1,043,940 MT was sold for 2024-25 and 579,120 MT for 2025-26 delivery. The sale was followed a couple of days later by another 197,180 MT sold to Mexico. The USDA also reported that “unknown destinations” were still in the market with purchases of 332,000 MT of corn and nearly 468,000 MT of soybeans, both for 2024-25. Earlier in the week, the USDA announced the sale of 120,000 MT of 2024-25 soft red winter wheat to Mexico and 131,000 MT of 2024-25 soybeans to China.
Corn: Sales for 2024-25 soared 82% over the previous week to a whopping 2,225,700 MT and were noticeably higher than the 4-week average. Mexico acquired a relatively modest 231,800 MT while unknown destinations picked up 902,900 MT and Japan 452,700 MT, including a 7,000-MT switch from unknown destinations. Export shipments for the week fell 53% from the previous week to 501,800 MT; Mexico was the leading destination for the week at 230,300 MT.
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Soybeans: China continued to drive sales of 2024-25 soybeans. The USDA said sales rose 35% to 1,702,700 MT, firmly inside the analysts’ range, and 16% higher than the 4-week average. China acquired slightly under 1,000,000 MT, which included a decrease of nearly 10,000 MT and 344,000 MT switched from unknown destinations. Actual exports were 9% higher at 1,852,700 MT, including 1,219,900 MT enroute to China. Soybean meal sales totaled 251,400 MT, most to Mexico, while soybean oil sales came in at 400 MT divided between Mexico and Canada, with shipments of 1,200 MT.
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Wheat: Wheat sales were at the high end of expectations at 504,100 MT, 16% higher than the week before and 57% over the 4-week average. The increases came as weather woes hampered the Black Sea region. Mexico led a mixed bag of buyers with 135,000 MT followed by lesser volumes for destinations including Japan, the Philippines and Egypt. Shipments increased 9% from the week before to 393,100 MT, but that was still 30% below the 4-week average.
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Meat: Pork sales last week fell 25% while beef sales were largely steady despite a string of decreases on the weekly tab. Pork sales fell to 38,100 MT, and while down from the previous week they were 1% higher than the 4-week average. Mexico took 8,900 MT followed by Japan at 7,800 MT. Shipments jumped 49% to 34,000 MT, including 2,100 MT sent to China. Beef sales were a quiet 3% higher than the week before but down 9% from the 4-week average. Japan’s tally of 4,600 MT included a 200 MT decrease. Another 900 MT was sold for 2025 delivery. Actual exports last week were down 5% at 15,300 MT with shipments headed to Mexico and Asia.
Others: Upland cotton sales increased 78% to 159,800 bales; 68% higher than the 4-week average. Vietnam led with 47,700 bales, including 8,800 MT switched from China. Pima sales, however, were a marketing-year low of only 2,600 bales. Exports of Upland fell 39% to 57,800 bales. Rice sales hit a marketing-year high of 126,800 MT and featured 72,600 MT sold to Venezuela. The sorghum market remained jumpy with sales up 71% from the week before but 36% lower than the 4-week average. The total of 9,400 MT was divided between China and Japan. Another 64,000 MT was shipped to China last week.
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USDA Flash Sales From this morning's USDA daily exports sales notice -
169,926 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2024/2025 marketing year
- 130,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2024/2025 marketing year
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198,192 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year
- 116,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year
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264,000 metric tons of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year
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US – Last week's observed precipitation |
European model – US 7-day precipitation forecast |
US 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal |
Brazil – Last week’s observed precipitation |
Brazil – 8-15 day forecast precipitation
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Argentina – Last week’s observed precipitation |
Argentina – 8-15 day forecast precipitation |
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ABOUT US
Roach Ag. Marketing is a full service advisory firm founded in Perry, Iowa back in 1978 to help farmers do a better job of marketing their crops and livestock. Learn more...
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568 E Yamato Rd
Ste 200
Boca Raton, FL 33431
Telephone: 800.622.7628 FAX: 561-994-9240
E-mail: dailygrainplan@roachag.com |
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