↓ Mar'25 | 4.39 3/4 | -1 1/2
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↓ Nov'24 | 10.46 1/4 | -10 3/4
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↓ Jan'25 | 10.64 3/4 | -10 1/2
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↑ Dec'24
| 5.84 1/2 | +1/2
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↑ Mar'25 | 6.04 1/2 | +1/4
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Night Trade as of 7:00 am CST. |
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Sell Signals - Corn - Day 3
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Soybeans - Day 4
- Meal -Day 1
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During the past 12 months - Corn had 6 Sell Signals lasting 5, 1, 4, 9, 4, and 3 days.
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Soybeans had 6 Sell Signals lasting 3, 6, 6, 4, 4, and 4 days.
- Meal had 3 Sell Signals lasting 16, 9, and 4 days.
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Increase corn and soybean sales to 60%
Monday’s USDA reports were a bit friendly for a change, with the September 1 Stocks totals for corn and soybeans coming in below trade expectations. This helped keep our current corn and soybean Sell Signals alive. Corn prices benefited the most, surging to their highest level since the last round of quarterly reports in June. Last week, we said that if prices remain higher following the USDA reports, we would recommend making additional sales. We are following through on that today.
We recommend adding another 5-10% increment of 2024 corn and soybean production. This brings our recommendation for the current crop year to 60% of expected production for both corn and soybeans.
While yesterday’s numbers were relatively friendly, the bottom line is that US crop will be very large and there will be a worse storage problem than last year. The USDA reported there were 270 million bushels more corn, soybeans, and wheat in on-farm storage as of September 1 compared to last year. Where is the large crop being harvested going to go? If you don’t have room to store your new crop, take advantage of the current Sell Signal and make some additional sales. If your farm has adequate storage for the current crop, you can proceed at a slower pace. Roach Ag Corn sales recommendations: 2023 – 100% sold 2024 – 60% sold Roach Ag Soybeans sales recommendations: 2023 – 100% sold 2024 – 60% sold We are waiting for higher prices or more KMI boxes to be checked before recommending 2025 sales. However, any time we have a Sell Signal, it is OK to make sales for any crop year that can pencil out a profit on your P&L statement. If you want to make some profitable 2025 sales, the green light is on.
Dr. Cordonnier lowered his US soybean yield estimate by another half bushel this week due to continued dryness in the central and western Corn Belt and the potential for damage due to Hurricane Helene. This dropped his yield estimate to 51.5 bpa (USDA is at 53.2 bpa). |
Reports were a snoozer for wheat
The quarterly Stocks total was slightly larger (13 million bushels) than expected for wheat, but overall, the USDA numbers for wheat yesterday were very neutral, with few surprises. Total wheat production was pegged at 1.971 billion bushels, down from 1.982 billion in August and just 5 million bushels above the average trade estimate. Wheat prices continued to trade near the 20-day average overnight. |
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US crop progress remains ahead of average pace with above average condition ratings. The corn harvest advanced to 21% complete this week, a couple points behind trade expectations but ahead of the 18% five-year average. The soybean harvest moved along more quickly reaching 26% complete, two points ahead of trade estimates and well ahead of the 18% five-year average. This week’s forecast is favorable for harvest to accelerate across the Corn Belt.
The spring wheat harvest is essentially wrapped up, with the USDA no longer reporting a status update. Winter wheat planting advanced to 39% and 14% emerged, both one point ahead of average. Brazil crop progress
Central Brazil remains hot and dry, while southern Brazil has received widespread rain. In far southern Rio Grande do Sul, there has been too much rain in some locations. These weather conditions have slowed Brazilian soybean planting, which reached 2.0% as of late last week, compared to 5.2% last year, and 2.7% on average according to Ag Rural. The state of Parana is furthest along at 13% planted. In the top producing state of Mato Grosso, just 0.5% of beans have been planted (mostly irrigated).
The summer rains that typically arrive in the middle of September have been delayed until the middle of October (according to current forecast) this year. The key for normal crop development will be how widespread and regularly distributed the rain will be once they arrive. This will be a key focus this month and have strong influence on the markets.
First crop corn in Brazil was 30% planted as of late last week according to Ag Rural, compared to 32% last year. Much of this planting occurred in southern Brazil where rainfall has been adequate. In Parana, 60% of first crop corn was planted, and is projected to be done in the next couple weeks. Dry weather has also slowed planting in Argentina, where no soybean acres and 10.5% of corn were reported planted by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
Sugar and Cotton Sell Signals
Sugar and cotton prices held near yesterday’s close in overnight trading. Both sugar and cotton remain in Sell Signals again today. Rice prices recovered from last week’s downtrend move on Monday and traded right at the 20-day average again overnight. |
Outside Markets
Equities: The stock market recovered late in the day Monday after a brief scare from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Stocks tumbled briefly after Powell signaled that a 50-basis-point reduction in interest rates in November was not a done deal. But stocks reversed course and moved higher heading to the close. The Dow Jones was around 65 points higher in the home stretch while Nasdaq was up 75 points when the bell sounded.
Tesla, IBM and Starbucks were among the leading gainers as September closed out. The upcoming September jobs report will be released Friday. Expectations are for 130,000 added jobs during the month, compared to 142,000 new positions in August, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. Meanwhile, China’s stock market continued to surge Monday. The market began soaring higher last week after Beijing announced a swap program worth $71 billion to fund stock purchases by brokers, insurance companies and funds. The plan also included provisions for corporate stock buy-back programs.
Dollar: The dollar was mixed on Monday in the wake of easing inflation in the United States. The Dollar Index rose to 100.5. Germany’s inflation rate fell to 1.6% in September and the lowest monthly rate since early 2021, which helped push the euro higher to 1.112 against the dollar. Analysts said the lower inflation rate should help clear the way for the European Central Bank to trim its interest rates on Oct. 17. The dollar moved higher against the yen to 143.8 as Japan’s new ruling-party leader signaled that major rate increases were unlikely in the near future.
Treasuries: Chairman Powell’s continued cautious remarks on interest-rate cuts Monday helped Treasury yields move higher. Inflation data has remained mostly positive, leaving the Fed on course to another reduction in interest rates in November. But Powell threw a bit of a damper on the recent rally Monday when he reminded an audience the board would proceed according to the data and was not on a “preset course” in terms of how large future rate cuts would be.
The 10-year yield rose to 3.80% and the 2-year hit 3.65%. The latest personal expenditure price index released last Friday, with the data showing a 0.1% month-over-month increase in August and cut the annual inflation rate to 2.2%, the lowest since 2021. Along with Friday’s jobs report, the market has an update on job openings and the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index on Tuesday and non-manufacturing report on Thursday.
Energies: Crude prices were little changed Monday as the market monitored the Middle East and watched for evidence in China that crude demand was poised to increase. November WTI rallied slightly off of last week’s losses and closed above $68 but an earlier run above $69 failed to take hold. Brent crude slipped a dime or so and remained short of $72. China’s splashy economic stimulus measures last week raised the prospect of increased oil demand, but traders appeared cautious since Saudi Arabia is expected to begin loosening production restrictions in the coming months.
No great surprise, but Israel looks determined to mount an expedition into neighboring Lebanon for a showdown with Hezbollah. Iranian officials said Monday they would not commit troops to the coming fray, which should reassure the oil markets that supplies will continue to flow freely. At the same time, Russia dispatched its prime minister, one Mikhail Mishustin, to Tehran for a meeting with the Iranian president.
Metals: Gold posted a modest retreat from last week’s 12-month highs but remained around $2,650 and well over the moving average. Analysts said the major rally in China’ stock market likely drew some support away from gold, but the long-term outlook remains bullish for gold and for other metals as well.
Beijing’s latest effort to spark the property sector has had traders anticipating increased demand in base metals, particularly copper. December copper jumped to $4.80 at the open before a steady decline to nearly $4.50 by late afternoon. Mining major BHP said Monday it expected long-term copper growth to surge an average of 1 million MT per year over the next 10 years to meet growing demand for electric vehicles and infrastructure.
Livestock: Livestock futures were stable on Monday and closed out September with only minimal changes. October live cattle held slightly below $184 while more-active December prices were nearer to $185. The market appeared quiet, especially after the Commitment of Traders (COT) showed managed-money funds loading up on more than 13,000 live-cattle contracts last week, pushing length up to the highest level since late July.
The funds also picked up lesser amounts of feeder cattle contracts and reduced their shorts in the hog market while adding nearly 68,200 contracts to their length. October feeder cattle appeared to find some support above $246 after sliding nearly a dollar lower. Hogs were mixed with October inching above $82 in light trading while more-active December drifted slightly lower toward $73.
Live Cattle: The late Monday cutout was up more than a dollar at $298, which was also about equal to the 5-day average and $13.55 over the select number. Cash prices began the week at a solid $186 with traders cautious in the early stages of the week.
Feeder Cattle: The Crop Progress report showed a slight gain in pasture conditions with 26% now in good-to-excellent shape. The Oklahoma City auction reported good demand and prices a few dollars higher. There was a scarcity of heavier feeder cattle in Colorado last week and activity was on the light side. The Joplin auction saw lighter cattle up to $8 higher on good demand.
Lean Hogs: Cash prices opened the week more than a dollar higher nationwide at $76.68, although the only posted prices were above $77 in the Western Corn Belt. The CME Index was around $84 late last week. The pork cutout was little changed late Monday at $95.84 and around a dollar over the 5-day average. |
Gulf Coast Dock Strike
The cavalry was nowhere in sight on Monday, leaving Gulf Coast longshoremen ready to strike at the stroke of midnight early Tuesday.
No talks too place Monday, allowing the existing contract between the International Longshoreman’s Association (ILA) and the U.S. Maritime Exchange (USMX) to expire on Sept. 30 and leading to the ILA going out on strike for the first time since 1977 at 12:01 am Tuesday. The Biden administration made no moves to block the walkout other than urging negotiations to continue in order to avoid a potentially costly breakdown of the logistics chain while retailers are making final preparations for the holiday shopping season.
The strike also coincides with harvest season, although ILA workers manning the grain terminals on the Gulf Coast work under a different contract than their striking brothers and sisters who handle container cargoes. Analysts say the strike should not have an impact on bulk agricultural cargoes but will halt shipments of containerized soybeans, cotton, meat and other products. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack expressed confidence over the weekend that the two sides could come to an agreement. “We haven't had a circumstance where we've had a strike in 50 years, so we know that it can get done,” he told reporters.
The two sides remain apart on wages and plans to expand automation on the docks, which would threaten an unspecified number of union jobs. The USMX last week filed an unfair labor practices complaint against the ILA with the National Labor Relations Board alleging the union refused to negotiate.
Analysts generally agree the Biden administration won’t allow the strike to continue very long, even at the risk of losing political backing from organized labor for Vice President Harris’ campaign. The stoppage is estimated to cost the economy at least $1 billion and even a short strike would require weeks to sort out backlogged cargo and congested ports. |
USDA reports summary
USDA note: The marketing year for corn and soybeans is finished and a thorough review of the balance sheet was completed. This process, which is normal for this time of the year, led to revisions in acreage, yield, and production for the 2023 crop. Nationally, corn production for 2023 is revised down 1.08 million bushels and soybean production is revised down 2.62 million bushels from the previous estimate.
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US Crop Progress
Rainfall last week slowed the U.S. corn and soybean harvest, but the pace remained on par with last year and was generally still moving along faster than the 5-year average.
The USDA said late Monday that while work slowed in Iowa during the week ending Sept 29, the corn harvest advanced 7 percentage points to 21% completed, which was equal to this time last year and slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 18%. Iowa was still only around 11% completed but other major states were continuing at a brisk pace.
The crop was rated 64% good to excellent, down from 65% the week before, and 95% of the corn in the fields has reached the denting stage. The USDA said 12% of the crop was rated poor to very poor, unchanged from the previous week. Soybean harvesting reached 26% completed, double the completion rate during the previous week and well ahead of 20% last year and the 5-year average of only 18%. The crop rating of 64% good to excellent was unchanged from the week before and outshined the 5-year average of 52%.
Winter wheat planting advanced 14 percentage points to 39% completed, 3 points ahead of last year and about even with the average. Kansas reached 32% completed but Nebraska and Washington were up to 71%. Around 14% of the crop had emerged, which was slightly ahead of last year and the average. Hurricane Helene largely missed the corn and soybean regions but did bring heavy rains to the Southeast where 72% of the cotton crop was in the critical bolling stage. Growers were able to ramp up the harvest to 20% compared to the 16% average, but the condition ratings fell by 6 points to 32% good to excellent. Corn 75% mature. Last week 61%. Avg. 70% 21% harvested. Last week 14%. Avg. 18% 64% good to excellent. Last week 65%. Avg 56%
12% poor to very poor. Last week 12% Soybeans
81% dropping leaves. Last week 65%. Avg. 73% 26% harvested. Last week 13%. Avg. 18%
64% good to excellent. Last week 64%. Avg 57% 11% poor to very poor. Last week 11%
Spring Wheat 100% harvested. Last week 96%.
Winter Wheat 39% planted. Last week 25%. Avg 38%
14% emerged. Last week 4%. Avg 13% Corn |
Export Inspections
Export inspections of corn were back above 1 million metric tons (MT) last week and also surpassed the 50 million MT mark for the marketing year.
A hefty volume of more than 569,000 MT inspected for Mexico padded the total for the week ending Aug. 15 to 1,166,090 MT compared to 986,183 MT a week earlier. The total also increased the running tally for the year to 50,099,221 MT, well above the 36,181,641 MT a year earlier. Japan had nearly 340,000 MT inspected on the Gulf Coast and Pacific Northwest while China had small amounts of corn inspected on the Atlantic Coast and the Interior.
Soybean inspections also ticked higher last week, rising to 398,233 MT from 349,636 MT and raising the total for the year to 43,784,599 MT. Germany had 130,571 MT inspected on the Mississippi River while China had 56,765 MT, most of it on the big river as well. China also had 106,000 MT of sorghum inspected on the Gulf Coast.
Wheat inspections fell sharply to 347,519 MT from 666,662 MT the previous week but was ahead of the 311,314 MT a year ago. The total inspections for the year stood at 4,583,746 MT for the year compared to 3,639,908 MT last year.
The majority of the wheat inspections last week took place on the Columbia River with 131,148 MT consigned to Indonesia. Of the total for the week, 178,036 MT was of the hard red winter variety. |
USDA Flash Sales From this morning's USDA daily exports sales notice 195,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year
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US – Monday's observed precipitation |
European model – US 7-day precipitation forecast |
US 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal |
Brazil – 8-15 day precipitation forecast |
Argentina – 8-15 day precipitation forecast |
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ABOUT US
Roach Ag. Marketing is a full service advisory firm founded in Perry, Iowa back in 1978 to help farmers do a better job of marketing their crops and livestock. Learn more...
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Roach Ag Marketing
568 E Yamato Rd
Ste 200
Boca Raton, FL 33431
Telephone: 800.622.7628
FAX: 561-994-9240
E-mail: dailygrainplan@roachag.com |
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